Techno-economic and demographic parameter

Input model parameters

In order to run the OnSSET analysis certain input parameters have to be used. Some of these are specified directly in the Python code while others are specified in an excel specs file.

Python input parameters

The values for the parameters in the table below are already filled in the OnSSET Python files. However, some of these may need to be updated with new or country specific values.

Parameter Description Unit
BASE_YEAR The base year of the analysis. Note that this parameter is highly related to the input GIS data, which should, if possible, be calibrated towards this year (e.g. the population distribution map should represent the base year values).
END_YEAR The final year of the analysis.
Scenario The input value here represents the annual electricity consumption per household that is expected to be achieved,by the end year. kWh/hh/year
sa_diesel_capital_cost The capital cost (per capacity unit) of a stand- alone diesel generator. $/kW
sa_pv_capital_cost The capital cost (per capacity unit) of a stand- alone PV module. $/kW
mg_diesel_capital_cost The capital cost (per capacity unit) of a mini grid diesel generator. $/kW
mg_pv_capital_cost The capital cost (per capacity unit) of a mini grid PV system. $/kW
mg_wind_capital_cost The capital cost (per capacity unit) of a mini grid wind powered system. $/kW
mg_hydro_capital_cost The capital cost (per capacity unit) of a mini grid hydropower system. $/kW
existing_grid_cost_ratio Incremental cost increase for extension of the grid from an electrified settlement to an un-electrified one. Default value set at 10%. ratio
discount_rate The discount rate applied to different technology configuration choices throughout the period of analysis ratio
grid_cell_area The size of each grid cell used in the study area. This value typically ranges between 1 and 10 km2 km2

Discount rate

The discount rate is a rather important factor when doing modelling and planning for energy systems. This has to do with the fact that the discount rate is aimed at the variable cost. In other words a high discount rate tends to favour technologies with high variable costs (e.g. technologies that use non-renewable fuels), while lower discount rates favours technologies with high capital investment (e.g. renewables). This makes it a very good variable for running sensitivity analysis. For realistic values of the discount rate study the literature regarding your studyarea.

Off-grid technology costs

When calculating the total cost for the off-grid technologies (all the stand-alone and mini-grid systems) there are several different costs that need to be taken into account. The technology is a fixed cost that need to be taken into account, but the variable costs necessary for generating electricity also have to be taken into account (e.g. fuel costs). The cost of installing the system also need to be taken into account. The connection to the grid is however excluded and hence not taken into consideration.

Specs-file input parameters

The inputs in the table below should be entered in an .xlsx file namned CountrySpecs.xlsx (Replace Country with the name of the area studied)

Parameter | Description Unit
Country Enter the name of the study area
Pop2015 The population of the selected area in the base year. People
UrbanRatio2015 The ratio of urban population in the selected area in the base year. Ratio
Pop2030 The projected population People
UrbanRatio2030 The ratio of urban population in the selected area in the end year. Ratio
NumPeoplePerHHRural Number of people per household in rural areas People
NumPeoplePerHHUrban Number of people per household in urban areas People
DieselPriceLow The low price of diesel. Used in the calculation of the operational costs for diesel generators (in both mini grid and stand-alone systems). $/liter
DieselPriceHigh The high price of diesel. Used in the calculation of the operational costs for diesel generators (in both mini grid and stand-alone systems). $/liter
GridPrice The cost of which the national grid generates electricity. This value is based on the mix of technologies used in the country. $/kWh
GridCapacityInvestmentCost The investment required per unit of additional capacity for the national grid. This is an average value based on,the mix of technologies used in the country. $/kWh
GridLosses This value represents the country’s average technical losses on transmission and distribution. Ratio
BaseToPeak This value represents the ratio between the base and peak load in the selected country. It is used for sizing the necessary capacity to be installed per settlement in order to cover the respective demand. Ratio
ExistingGridCostRatio Incremental cost increase for extension of the grid from an electrified settlement to an un-electrified one. Default value set at 10%. Ratio
MaxGridExtensionDist The input parameter sets the maximum distance for which the grid can be extended in order to electrify a settlement due to techno-ecoomic considerations. The default value in the model is 50km. km
ElecActual The electrification rate in the selected area in the base year. What ratio of population is electrified. Ratio
MinNightLights Night time light is an indicator retrieved by NASA’s satellite imageries and it represents light intensity over a geographical area. The value ranges from 0 to 63 with higher value representing higher light intensity over the night. The input parameter sets the minimum light intensity value under which the model will consider a settlement as electrified. [0-63]
MaxGridDist The input parameter sets the maximum distance from the existing or planned grid network under which the model will consider a settlement as electrified. km
MaxRoadDist The input parameter sets the maximum distance from the existing or planned road network under which the model will consider a settlement as electrified. km
PopCutOffRoundOne These input parameters sets the minimum population value under which the model will consider a settlement as electrified. If the value at Round one is not satisfactory the program will move on to Round two (make sure that round two has a higher value than round one.) People
PopCutOffRoundTwo
UrbanCutOff This input parameter sets the minimum population value under which the model will consider a settlement urban People

The variables MinNightLights, MaxGridDist, MaxRoadDist, PopCutOffRoundOne, PopCutOffRoundTwo and UrbanCutOff are not found in the literature but rather defined by the user. When running the code these values are altered to find a combination that satisfies that the cells are assigned electrified and urban status matching the values entered at ElecActual and UrbanRatio2015.

All the values with ratio as the unit should take a value between 0 and 1 in the excel file.

Diesel pump price

For the diesel price the best option is to find the diesel price directly from the literature regarding your studyarea. In cases for which this is not possible you should try to find the crude oil price in your country. 1.15 is an emperical value used in order to estimate the diesel price ($/liter) from the crude oil price($/liter). It is assumed that the price of diesel is 15% higher than the crude oil price. If you have difficulties finding the crude oil price in your area of interest you can refer to e.g. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/world-energy-outlook_20725302.

Household size

The household size is an important parameter in the electrification planning analysis as it affects the connection costs per household. These are calculated based on:

  1. the projected mean national household size values
  2. the existing and projected national, urban and rural populations
  3. the urban to rural household size ratio given in demographics and health country surveys.

Note

It is very important that the columns in the Specs-file are named exactly as they are namned in the Parameter-column in the table above.